THE ART OF CHOOSING WISELY
September 14, 2025
Life is full of choices, and some of them shape the course of everything that follows. But in uncertain times, big decisions often feel overwhelming. Annie Duke, author of Thinking in Bets, suggests we shift our mindset. Instead of thinking in terms of “right” or “wrong,” she encourages us to think in probabilities, just like poker players do. Every decision involves uncertainty, but with the right framing, we can reduce regret and increase confidence.
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Reflections & Wisdom
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One of Duke’s insights is that we often blend the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. A good decision can still lead to an unwanted outcome because chance always plays a role. Focusing on the decision-making process rather than the result leads to wiser, calmer choices.
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When faced with uncertainty, Annie Duke suggests three key steps:
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1. Set a Deadline: Ask: “How long am I okay with things as they are?” Commit to a concrete timeline instead of drifting indefinitely. (Katy Milkman)
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2. Do a Future Check: Imagine yourself at that deadline: What would a good version of the situation look like? What signals would tell you it’s time to stay or go? (Hal Hershfield)
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3. Weigh the Odds: Estimate the probability that the good version will actually happen. This simple exercise often brings clarity and the courage to act sooner than expected.
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Shifting your mindset to probabilities rather than perfection helps free you to act and reminds you that joy often lives on the other side of choice.
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Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert adds that humans are remarkably good at adapting to outcomes, even ones they feared; the future is often less scary than it seems. The stress is in the choosing, not the living.
One Action Toward More Joy​
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Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow shows that our minds operate with two systems:
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System 1 (Fast Thinking): Quick, intuitive, and automatic. It’s excellent for everyday decisions, recognizing faces, reading emotions, or reacting in emergencies. But under uncertainty, it often falls prey to cognitive biases—like overconfidence or stereotyping.
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System 2 (Slow Thinking): Deliberate, analytical, and effortful. It shines when problems are complex, unfamiliar, or high-stakes. It helps us weigh evidence, compare options, and resist impulsive errors. The downside? It’s slower and mentally draining, so we avoid it unless prompted.
What research shows: Neither system is “better.” They’re complementary. System 1 keeps us efficient and adaptive, while System 2 acts as a check, stepping in when accuracy and reasoning matter most. The smartest decision-makers learn to notice when their fast intuition might mislead them and consciously shift into slow mode.
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Your invitation: Before making your next important choice, pause and ask: “Is this a System 1 snap judgment, or should I engage System 2?” Write down one piece of evidence for your decision before acting.
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Still hungry for more? Listen to two podcast interviews about navigating uncertainty: April Rinne, author of Flux, and Maggie Jackson, author of Uncertain.
Joyful brain delight​
Scientists Uncover Brain’s Self-Cleaning Switch Against Alzheimer’s
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Researchers have identified a critical receptor—ADGRG1—that helps the brain’s immune cells (microglia) clear away harmful plaque. Without it, plaque builds rapidly, leading to memory loss and brain damage. With it, Alzheimer’s symptoms stay milder. Because ADGRG1 belongs to a drug-friendly family of receptors, this discovery could pave the way for new therapies that boost the brain’s natural defenses and protect millions from Alzheimer’s. Read more about it
"Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen."
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Ralph Waldo Emerson